Recently I’ve avoided politics on this blog because (1) I know nothing about it and (2) it makes me and everyone else miserable just thinking about it. But a headline just caught my eye that I can’t stop myself commenting on.
The headline was in the BBC and read ‘France threatens G20 walkout’. Seemingly M Sarkozy has made it very clear that if French demands (for a stricter system of financial regulation) are not approved then France will not sign an agreement and may walk away from the meeting. His reported words were “Si ça n’avance pas à Londres, ce sera la chaise vide ! Je me lèverai et je partirai” (trans: ‘If things don’t advance in London my chair will be empty – I’ll get up and leave’)
Now if it was me I would certainly be looking for any excuse to ‘get up and leave’ such a meeting – dentist appointment, school fetes, job interviews, I’d have them all lined up ready to get me out of a late night session with Mr Brown, but that is why I’m not a politician. (Aside: one of the happiest days in my working career was when I was summonsed for two weeks of jury service.)
But why do I care about the headline? After all it’s just posturing by politicians before the meeting and pretty common in the world of politics, right? Well I care for a couple of reasons.
First, there are very big differences in opinion between countries like the USA/UK and France/Germany, with respect to the amount of finance that should be used to reboot the world economy. I’m not in a position to ‘know’ who is right and who is wrong, but agreement in some form is needed from the world leaders. If everyone who thought they were not going to get their way decided to walk out then the meeting will fail before it starts.
Second, the big problem at the moment, for the whole world, is business confidence. This starts a vicious cycle where no one spends money, more companies close down, more people lose their jobs etc…this is common knowledge. The only way around this is to make people optimistic about the future and their job prospects. Hence why Obama talks about seeing the first signs of a recovery etc.
If people believe a recovery is on its way, then it will be on its way. An acceptable little white lie, I think, if it saves us from a 1930′s depression.
So the one great challenge for the forthcoming G20 meeting is to present a unified front, to give the impression that all will be well, and to do their utmost to ensure that goal is met. If the meeting can achieve this it will be a success. And the one thing that absolutely ensures it can’t achieve it is if individual countries start saying their own interests must come first or they will walk away.
In M Sarkozy’s defence he also said “Rien ne serait pire qu’un G20 a minima, je préfère le clash au consensus mou” (trans: ‘There would be nothing worse than a low-achieving G20 meeting, I prefer disagreements (clashes) to a feeble consensus’). Also he said ‘better a failure than a false success’. Much more the kind of words we all like to hear, and presumably a view that would be broadly supported by all the leaders present…as long as in principle everyone is prepared for a bit of give and take!
Anyway, I wish all of them the very best of luck, I can’t think of anywhere in the world I would less like to be than in their meeting.
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