End of expat relocation to France?
The year is gliding to a close on a bit of a poor note, world economy wise, and I’ve been wondering how it might affect us.
I read that property prices in London fell 7% in November. If that continues for another 14 months, houses in the UK will cost about the same as a flat screen television. More importantly it probably means that fewer people will be selling up in the UK and moving to France, at least for the time being.
Recent health care changes also mean you will need to pay for a few years of private health insurance if you arrive in France below retirement age. This might also have deterred you if you are of a nervous disposition.
Meanwhile it will take a year or two for current owners of French ruins to understand that they are never going to sell a heap of rock for 200,000 euros and reduce the prices accordingly. It is a curious feature of the French that they don’t like reducing prices - the florist or vegetable stall in the market would rather throw leftover produce in the bin than reduce the price for the last hour, and the supermarket never reduce the price of meat that only has a day or two before its ‘best by’ date.
The French generally expect to take years to sell a property anyway.
So does this mean that we won’t see many new expat arrivals for a year or two? And those who are here and want to return won’t be able to sell their unbooked empty gite complexes, so won’t be able to afford to leave. Will we descend into a Zolaesque world of grinding poverty, stealing chicken eggs and potato peelings from the neighbours, and burning furniture to stay warm?
A world recession actually seems possible at the moment due to the reckless (greedy) behaviour of banks and mortgage lenders, and the erratic behaviour of homeowners over the last few years. If you can sell a house worth £150,000 for £300,000, buy a house worth £250,000 for £500,000, and make up the difference with an enormous mortgage, while buying food with a credit card, why not! I fear we are about to discover why these sums don’t add up.
But I can’t tell how much it might affect us, in our little isolated world. Will everyone still scrape together a few pounds for a holiday in France I wonder? Is our remote little world as remote as we think it is? Hopefully we won’t find out, but it is with some apprehension that I will be welcoming in 2008…
you need to put a positive spin on things.
two weeks in a gite is going to be cheaper than flying a familly of 6 to florida or some other far flung place that will impress the neighbours at home. plus spending a weeks wages in a day on theme parks and burgers.
i reckon your in for a bumper year. put yourself on the waiting list for the audi!
Hi, I’m not known for my positive outlook - surely the cheap dollar and high euro will mean just the opposite?
Still, perhaps I’ll be able to afford a nice photo of the audi!
Seriously, I don’t think we are about to have a major recession, just speculating on what could happen. Serves me right for reading the Economist.